Guolian (603613) 2019 performance forecast comment: performance forecast exceeds expectations and high growth continues to be expected

Matters: The company released a performance forecast, and it is estimated that the net profit attributable to mothers will be about 1 in 2019.

5.1 billion to 1.

6 trillion, an increase of about 57 million to 66 million yuan a year, an annual increase of about 60.

88% to 70.

46%.

At the same time, the estimated income is 71 ‰ to 73 ‰, an increase of 93 per year.

27% to 98.

71%.

Comment: Results exceeded our expectations.

It is estimated that the net profit attributable to mothers will be approximately 1 in 2019.

5.1 billion to 1.

6 trillion, an increase of about 57 million to 66 million yuan a year, an annual increase of about 60.

88% to 70.

46%.

At the same time, the estimated income is 71 ‰ to 73 ‰, an increase of 93 per year.

27% to 98.

71%, the average revenue and profit growth exceeded our expectations.

We expect a slight decrease in gross profit margin, mainly due to the appropriate profit concession in the early stage of the expansion of new categories. We believe that the expansion of the scale will increase the gross profit margin.

High initial income growth, Q4 acceleration trend is obvious.

In 2019, it is expected to realize revenue of 7.1 billion to 7.3 billion, an annual growth of 93.

27%?
98.

71%, with an average Q4 increase of 122% per quarter?
137%, the acceleration trend is obvious.

The high revenue growth was mainly due to the high growth in transaction revenue of the main categories of vertical e-commerce platforms such as the company’s coatings, Weiduodu, and Boduoduo. At the same time, the “double ten” transaction volume in 2019 doubled, and it is expected to increase in 4 quarters.Contributions are also resilient.

As a leader in the Industrial Internet, the company has a smooth growth logic and is optimistic about the continued high growth of its performance.

First, the three major parts of the company previously established have achieved high-speed development, and the logic of cross-category development has gradually been realized. The listing and investment in the establishment of more paper and more fat, the expansion of new commodity categories can be expected; second, three majorThe proportion of some multi-platform transactions in the market of the commodity industry is still very low, with a penetration rate of about 2%, and there is still a lot of potential for improvement. Third, the active membership of Guolian Resource Network has a very high conversion 杭州夜网论坛 rate to multi-platform trading members.big space.

In addition, new innovative business expansion is also expected to open up new growth space, and sustained high growth can be expected.

Investment suggestion: Considering that the company’s vertical e-commerce platform business has expanded beyond expectations and is expected to continue to grow at a high level, we raise the company’s net profit forecast for mothers to 2019 to 1 to 1.

55 billion, 2.

3.9 billion, 3.

64 trillion (the original forecast was 1.

4.4 billion, 2.

18 billion, 3.

27 ‰), corresponding to PE of 72 times, 47 times, and 31 times. Considering the company’s broad growth space, smooth growth logic, and intensified competition, continuous high growth in performance, the company will be evaluated by referring to comparable companies.

1x PEG, raise target price to 106.

3 yuan, maintaining the “strong push” level.

Risk warning: market competition is intensified; new varieties are less developed than expected.