Changchun High-tech (000661) 2019 first quarter performance forecast comment: the first quarter report performance exceeded expectations, the deep-growing growth hormone industry is expected to maintain rapid growth in the future
Event: The company released the first quarter of 2019 results forecast. In the first quarter of 2019, the company’s net profit increased by 60%?80%, achieving a net profit of 3.3.6 billion?3.7.8 billion, significantly exceeding market expectations.We estimate and calculate that the core subsidiary Jinsai Pharmaceutical’s revenue in the first quarter increased by more than 50%, and its net profit increased by more than 60%.The vaccine business is affected by factors such as serious regulatory, maintenance and capacity metabolism caused by the longevity biological vaccine incident in 2018. The Q1 vaccine business is expected to be interrupted. The batch of issued data shows that the Q1 batch of 100 grams of biological chickenpox vaccine has declined by 63%. Maifeng RabiesThe Q1 batch of vaccines issued has decreased by 76% per year (as of March 24, 2019).Maximizing the real estate business project settlement income maximization and further improvement is another important factor driving the high growth of the first quarter statement view. Issuing shares and convertible bonds to purchase minority equity of Jinsai Pharmaceutical and raising supporting funds and related transactions proceeded step by step. After the completion of the mechanism, the company gradually rationalized the company’s gradual issuance of the above transaction plan. Once the issuance of shares and convertible bonds and the purchase of assets are successfully implemented, Jin LeiIt will directly hold the equity of listed companies, which will greatly promote its enthusiasm in stimulating growth and have a positive impact on the operation of Jinsai Pharmaceutical.Awaiting the announcement of specific plans. We are optimistic that the company will deeply cultivate the field of growth hormone subdivision and maintain the “strongly recommended” level of growth hormone without pressure to reduce 苏州夜网论坛 prices.With the continued advancement of channels such as Jinsai Pharmaceutical, patient education, sales team expansion, growth of the growth hormone industry has maintained rapid growth, the company’s inclusion index growth rate in 2018 exceeded 40%, and is expected to accelerate in 2019.Once the plan to acquire minority shares in Jinsai Pharmaceutical is successfully implemented, Jin Lei will directly hold equity in listed companies, which will greatly promote its enthusiasm and have a positive impact on Jinsai Pharmaceutical’s operations. We expect that the completion of the implementation will increase the company’s performancethick. Since the estimated price of Jinsai Pharmaceutical has not been announced and the expected release of supporting funds is still uncertain, the implementation of this plan is not considered for the time being. Is it expected that 2019?Revenue in 2021 73.6/99.4/133.2 ‰, 10 years growth of 37% / 35% / 34%, net profit of 13.74/17.97/22.89 million US dollars, previously increased 37% / 31% / 27%, currently expected to correspond to 2019?PE is 35/27/21 times in 2021. Considering that the company’s performance continues to maintain rapid growth, the incentive mechanism is gradually improved and rationalized. After the implementation of the plan, it is expected to increase net profit and maintain the “strong recommendation” level. Risk warning: Growth hormone sales are not up to expectations; poor performance of other businesses drags down the company’s performance; the issue of shares and convertible bonds to purchase assets cannot be implemented